WEEKLY ECONOMIC MONITOR : TRENDS The Week of January 17-21, 2000
13 Jan 2000
WEEKLY ECONOMIC MONITOR : TRENDS
The Week of January 17-21, 2000
The problem of efficient use of credits and timely servicing of external debt will remain the most important problems for Ukraine during, at least, next three years. A burden of redemption of external debt liabilities leads to reduction of social programs and to increase of social tensions, causes crowding-out of resources from investment in perspective sectors of economy and undermines economic growth of the country as a whole. In the table below we present the main indicators related to the problem of external debt.
COMPARISON of EXTERNAL DEBT
and SOME OTHER FINANCIAL INDICATORS in UKRAINE and RUSSIA
% GDPUSD bln% GDP
Gross reserves of the Central Bank
3.8% 12.5 7.4%
9.4% 16.2 9.5%
6.9% 5.7 3.4%
EBRD & EU
“The Former Soviet Union” debt
External Loan T-bills
Other Soviet debt
External debt servicing in 2000
Foreign trade balance-1999
Some data are preliminary and based on HIID estimates.
In 1999 the Russian authorities failed to service debt payments to the London Club a as well as External Loan Treasury bills. In total, Russia did not pay in time USD 6 bln. However, taking into account that the world oil prices are still on rise and that last year Russia repaid to foreign creditors USD 10 bln, we come to the conclusion that the Russian Federation has enough its own resources to service the external debt in 2000.
At the same time, having a burden of the military campaign as well as uncertainty caused by the presidential race, Russia is looking for additional sources of hard currency revenues:
1. The external borrowing either from the international financial organizations or from private sources is doubtful.
2. The market value of the “would-be” returns from the debtors of the former USSR is estimated at USD 5-7 bln and it is hard to get back.
So, in the nearest future Russia will increase pressure on the closest debtors,
first of all, Ukraine, whose total current debt (the combined debt of the national joint-stock company “Naftogas Ukraine” and non-state traders) exceeds USD 2 bln.
Therefore, we may expect further vulnerability of the hryvnia on the currency market. It is easy to predict the reluctance of the National Bank to formulate the guidelines of the monetary policy for this year.
Since the beginning of the year, the discrepancy between the official UAH/USD
rate in Kyiv and the cross-rate in Moscow has practically disappeared at the
level of 5.3-5.35 UAH/USD.
However, the non-payment crisis in Ukraine is not over, and the debt for energy supplies is growing as well as world oil prices. So, later this year discrepancy between value of the hryvnia in Kyiv and that in Moscow may emerge again.
During the first week of trades the
market has continued its gradual rise.
However, until now the PFTS-index recovered to the level of early June 1998
(19.5 months ago). We expect much faster growth during the next coming weeks.
January 13, 2000;
The Financial Week’1
, The Ukrainian News Agency
Prepared by O.Babanin January 13, 2000
Чешский Клуб: Высшее Образование в Чехии, Клуб Чешского Языка:
Курсы чешского языка в вечернее время (включая углубленный курс)
Курсы чешского языка (интенсив/суббота и воскресенье)
Как получить высшее образование в Чехии (включая магистратуру и аспирантуру)
Государственные высшие учебные заведения Чешской Республики
Нострификация аттестатов о среднем образовании
Нострификация дипломов о высшем образовании
Запросить Информацию >>>
CISP - Center for Information and Social Programs
. All Rights Reserved